Rory McIlroy
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 5%
24-hour volume$21
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved15 Nov 2026
Why it moved: −16 points at 16:10 UTC, after BBC Sport: Chacarra wins in India to take Race to Dubai lead — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 18 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 21% |
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%