Above 139
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 2% |
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the number of Disney+ app downloads in September 2026 exceeds 139 million. It resolves to "No" if that download count is 139 million or lower. Readers often mistake the linked price hike for a direct indicator, but only the specific Carbon Arc download data for September 2026 determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%