$50 trillion
Implied probability 31%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$30k
Resolves31 Mar 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 11:39 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal debt reaches $50 trillion during any quarter from Q4 2024 through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if the debt stays below that amount for the entire period. Readers often mistake the timing, thinking the deadline is a single date rather than a multi-year window.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%