$45 trillion
Implied probability 86%−2
24-hour volume$34
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves31 Mar 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 86% |
| 16 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 86% |
| 14 Oct, 11:35 UTC | 88% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal debt reaches $45 trillion during any quarter from Q4 2024 through Q4 2028. It resolves to No if that threshold is not met within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story about critical minerals loans as relevant, but only the total federal debt level matters for resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 86%
- No 14%