Israel / Israeli
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +99 points at 03:01 UTC, after The Hill: Shapiro, Garrity clash on data centers, measles response in Pennsylvania governor debate: 4 takeaways — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 8 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 99% |
| 7 Oct, 02:24 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any candidate in the Pennsylvania Governor's Debate originally scheduled for October 7, 2026, says the word "Israel" or "Israeli." Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the debate date for the deadline, but the trigger is simply the utterance of the specific words during that event.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%