Tom Cruise
Why it moved: +5 points at 19:10 UTC, after IndieWire: Tom Cruise to Be Honored with AFI Life Achievement Award — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 51% |
| 21 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 51% |
| 20 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 46% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tom Cruise appears on the nominee list for Best Actor at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards. It resolves to No if he does not appear on that specific list. Readers often mistake the linked story about an AFI award as the deciding factor, but only the Critics Choice Awards nominations matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 51%
- No 49%