Before May 1, 2027
Implied probability 62%−5
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$114k
Liquidity$114k
Resolves1 May 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 62% |
| 22 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Oct, 12:14 UTC | 49% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Oct, 09:18 UTC | 45% |
| 22 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 48% |
| 22 Oct, 06:39 UTC | 67% |
| 22 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 04:05 UTC | 62% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 64% |
| 21 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 65% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for one company to acquire the other or for them to merge before May 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake this deadline for the date of the announcement rather than the date the agreement becomes official.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 62%
- No 38%