Before Dec 1, 2026
Why it moved: +16 points at 20:15 UTC, after The Hill: Senate committee sets key vote for Trump FDA nominee — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 11 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 35% |
| 11 Nov, 20:15 UTC | 40% |
| 11 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Nov, 14:20 UTC | 20% |
| 10 Nov, 21:44 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 15% |
| 10 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Heidi Overton becomes the first confirmed Commissioner of the FDA before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if she does not hold that specific title within the deadline. Readers often mistake any confirmation hearing for an actual confirmation.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 65%