OpenAI
Why it moved: −7 points at 18:40 UTC, after The Guardian Business: When AI is subject to less regulation than your fridge, something is startlingly wrong | Richard Hermer — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 8% |
| 12 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 15% |
| 9 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 11% |
| 9 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 15% |
| 8 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 8% |
| 8 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 12% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI holds the number one spot on LiveBench.ai's Coding Average ranking on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%