Dan Wilson
Implied probability 99%+16
24-hour volume$245
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Why it moved: +16 points at 21:50 UTC, after feeds.bleacherreport.com: Dan Wilson's Status As Mariners Manager Revealed After Missing 2026 MLB Playoffs — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 83% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Seattle Mariners' manager leaves or announces their departure before December 1, 2026. The outcome is No if this does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about Dan Wilson for the actual event, but the market depends solely on the manager's status, not Dan Wilson's.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%