Below $240 billion
Implied probability 8%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves4 Feb 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 05:31 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if U.S. imports from China in calendar year 2026 fall below $240 billion. It resolves to No if those imports equal or exceed that amount. Readers often mistake the linked story about 2027 coal purchases as relevant, but only 2026 import data counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%