Before Nov 16, 2026
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$360k
Total volume$360k
Liquidity$360k
Resolved16 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +54 points at 15:54 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Huang to Have No Nvidia Role, One Dead in DC Shooting, More — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 12 Nov, 15:54 UTC | 99% |
| 12 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 45% |
| 12 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 46% |
| 12 Nov, 11:11 UTC | 47% |
| 12 Nov, 08:50 UTC | 64% |
| 12 Nov, 06:36 UTC | 67% |
| 12 Nov, 05:29 UTC | 65% |
| 12 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 70% |
| 12 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 78% |
| 12 Nov, 02:06 UTC | 77% |
| 12 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 75% |
| 11 Nov, 23:52 UTC | 53% |
| 10 Nov, 23:38 UTC | 0% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%