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Markets

Before Jan 1, 2027

Resolved: Yes 2h ago

The market favoured No at 83% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right

Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$2.7M
Total volume$3.1M
Liquidity$3.1M
Resolved1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: +31 points at 22:59 UTC, after Axios: Nvidia sinks after report implicates CEO Jensen Huang in 2nd affair — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Before Jan 1, 2027
0%50%100%99%7 Nov, 23:12 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now99%
12 Nov, 13:30 UTC77%
12 Nov, 12:21 UTC78%
12 Nov, 11:11 UTC75%
12 Nov, 08:50 UTC79%
12 Nov, 07:29 UTC81%
12 Nov, 06:55 UTC79%
12 Nov, 06:22 UTC77%
12 Nov, 05:55 UTC81%
12 Nov, 05:29 UTC82%
12 Nov, 04:22 UTC83%
12 Nov, 03:21 UTC88%
12 Nov, 02:46 UTC91%
12 Nov, 02:26 UTC89%
12 Nov, 01:46 UTC88%
12 Nov, 01:19 UTC87%
12 Nov, 00:59 UTC88%
12 Nov, 00:19 UTC89%
11 Nov, 23:58 UTC89%
11 Nov, 23:24 UTC75%
11 Nov, 22:59 UTC61%
11 Nov, 22:25 UTC31%
11 Nov, 21:58 UTC18%
11 Nov, 21:24 UTC19%
11 Nov, 20:56 UTC18%
11 Nov, 20:29 UTC19%
11 Nov, 18:59 UTC17%
11 Nov, 18:25 UTC15%
11 Nov, 17:50 UTC15%
11 Nov, 17:29 UTC17%
11 Nov, 16:46 UTC17%
11 Nov, 16:25 UTC17%
11 Nov, 15:49 UTC17%
11 Nov, 14:51 UTC17%
11 Nov, 14:27 UTC18%
11 Nov, 13:03 UTC17%
11 Nov, 12:22 UTC18%
11 Nov, 11:52 UTC18%
11 Nov, 11:24 UTC19%
11 Nov, 09:58 UTC18%
11 Nov, 09:02 UTC17%
11 Nov, 08:56 UTC19%
11 Nov, 08:10 UTC19%
11 Nov, 07:49 UTC18%
11 Nov, 07:23 UTC20%
11 Nov, 06:42 UTC19%
11 Nov, 05:15 UTC19%
11 Nov, 04:21 UTC19%
11 Nov, 03:49 UTC17%
11 Nov, 03:01 UTC18%
11 Nov, 02:54 UTC17%
11 Nov, 01:05 UTC18%
11 Nov, 00:37 UTC17%
11 Nov, 00:04 UTC17%
10 Nov, 23:56 UTC16%
10 Nov, 23:22 UTC17%
10 Nov, 22:55 UTC17%
10 Nov, 22:04 UTC17%
10 Nov, 21:57 UTC16%
10 Nov, 21:15 UTC17%
10 Nov, 20:54 UTC17%
10 Nov, 20:21 UTC16%
10 Nov, 19:54 UTC14%
10 Nov, 18:24 UTC15%
10 Nov, 17:50 UTC13%
10 Nov, 17:29 UTC13%
10 Nov, 16:39 UTC12%
10 Nov, 16:11 UTC16%
10 Nov, 15:57 UTC17%
10 Nov, 15:29 UTC16%
10 Nov, 14:56 UTC15%
10 Nov, 14:11 UTC14%
10 Nov, 13:28 UTC15%
10 Nov, 12:54 UTC14%
10 Nov, 11:19 UTC13%
10 Nov, 10:26 UTC13%
10 Nov, 09:46 UTC12%
10 Nov, 08:52 UTC13%
10 Nov, 07:44 UTC13%
10 Nov, 07:10 UTC12%
10 Nov, 06:37 UTC13%
10 Nov, 05:49 UTC12%
10 Nov, 05:02 UTC13%
10 Nov, 04:49 UTC12%
10 Nov, 04:15 UTC14%
10 Nov, 03:55 UTC13%
10 Nov, 03:08 UTC14%
10 Nov, 02:47 UTC14%
10 Nov, 02:27 UTC14%
10 Nov, 01:26 UTC14%
10 Nov, 00:46 UTC13%
10 Nov, 00:12 UTC14%
9 Nov, 23:52 UTC13%
9 Nov, 23:25 UTC14%
9 Nov, 22:58 UTC13%
9 Nov, 22:29 UTC15%
9 Nov, 21:43 UTC15%
9 Nov, 21:28 UTC17%
9 Nov, 20:54 UTC17%
9 Nov, 20:18 UTC17%
9 Nov, 19:44 UTC14%
9 Nov, 18:47 UTC15%
9 Nov, 18:18 UTC18%
9 Nov, 17:50 UTC22%
9 Nov, 17:23 UTC21%
9 Nov, 16:54 UTC19%
9 Nov, 16:27 UTC17%
9 Nov, 15:58 UTC17%
9 Nov, 15:16 UTC16%
9 Nov, 14:43 UTC17%
9 Nov, 14:22 UTC18%
9 Nov, 13:11 UTC14%
9 Nov, 12:51 UTC14%
9 Nov, 12:17 UTC16%
9 Nov, 11:14 UTC12%
9 Nov, 10:47 UTC16%
9 Nov, 09:50 UTC17%
9 Nov, 08:56 UTC19%
9 Nov, 08:09 UTC20%
9 Nov, 07:23 UTC20%
9 Nov, 06:43 UTC19%
9 Nov, 06:23 UTC19%
9 Nov, 05:50 UTC19%
9 Nov, 05:23 UTC17%
9 Nov, 04:56 UTC16%
9 Nov, 04:29 UTC17%
9 Nov, 03:41 UTC19%
9 Nov, 03:28 UTC17%
9 Nov, 02:54 UTC17%
9 Nov, 02:27 UTC13%
9 Nov, 01:46 UTC13%
9 Nov, 01:20 UTC14%
9 Nov, 00:55 UTC13%
9 Nov, 00:17 UTC16%
8 Nov, 23:57 UTC19%
8 Nov, 23:25 UTC20%
7 Nov, 23:12 UTC0%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if NVIDIA’s CEO announces his departure from the role before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake news reports of investigations or allegations for an actual announcement of leaving the position.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 99%
  • No 1%

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