Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 66%−5
24-hour volume$205
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 66% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 76% |
| 25 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 81% |
| 23 Sept, 04:04 UTC | 80% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Canada's Prime Minister personally announces a new or increased tariff on U.S. goods after the issue date and before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake general trade tensions or existing tariffs for the required new official announcement.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 66%
- No 34%