Before Oct 1, 2026
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 10:23 UTC | 5% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Canada’s Prime Minister personally announces a new or increased tariff on U.S. goods between now and October 1, 2026. The outcome is No if no such announcement occurs by that date. Readers often mistake general diplomatic pressure or existing tariffs for the required official announcement of a new or increased duty.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%