Proposition 4
Implied probability 1%−18
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Why it moved: −10 points at 18:27 UTC, after Fortune: Voters in Silicon Valley rejected the billionaire wealth tax while those in Los Angeles and San Francisco—home to the two top AI companies—wanted it — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 7 Nov, 01:41 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 9% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 19% |
| 6 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 22% |
| 5 Nov, 05:27 UTC | 31% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if California voters approve Proposition 4 and it becomes law. The outcome is No if they reject it or if it fails to pass. Readers often mistake the news headline about rejection for the final resolution, but only the official election results determine the answer.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%