Reform
Why it moved: +10 points at 04:07 UTC, after News Feed: Andy Burnham’s first Labour conference as prime minister — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 28 Sept, 04:07 UTC | 39% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 15% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Andy Burnham explicitly uses the word "Reform" while speaking during Prime Minister's Questions in the UK House of Commons. It resolves to No if he does not say that specific word during that session. Readers often mistake any mention of Reform elsewhere for a win, but only utterances during PMQs count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 39%
- No 61%