Flávio Bolsonaro
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 24 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 99% |
| 23 Oct, 07:40 UTC | 98% |
| 22 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins first place in São Paulo during the 2026 presidential runoff based on official certified results. The outcome is No if he does not finish first or if the election does not occur as scheduled. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming informal polls determine the result instead of the final certified government data.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%