Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Implied probability 98%+1
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves3 Oct 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 1 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 97% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if officials announce that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualifies for the runoff of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome depends solely on this official announcement regarding his eligibility for the second round. Readers often mistake general polling leads or primary results for the final qualification status.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%