Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥5%
The market favoured No at 71% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −32 points at 03:34 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: El triunfo de Lula frena a la derecha y socava las aspiraciones de Trump en Latinoamérica — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 35% |
| 25 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 18:15 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 26% |
| 22 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 29% |
| 22 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 30% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff by a margin of at least 5%. The outcome is No if he wins by less than 5% or loses the election. Readers often mistake the current polling lead for the final official result, but only the certified margin from the actual runoff counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%