Lula da Silva, 0-3%
The market favoured No at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 3%
24-hour volume$68k
Total volume$99k
Liquidity$99k
Resolved25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 27% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 25% |
| 25 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 17% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff by a margin of 0% to 3%. It resolves to No if his victory margin exceeds 3% or if he loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Amazon deforestation for the resolution criteria, but only the official election results determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%