Lula da Silva, 0-5%
Implied probability 59%+3
24-hour volume$221
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves4 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 15:32 UTC | 59% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 54% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 21:22 UTC | 55% |
| 27 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 61% |
| 27 Sept, 01:10 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 54% |
| 26 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Sept, 08:43 UTC | 57% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin between 0% and just under 5%. The outcome is No if his victory margin is 5% or more, or if he does not win. Readers often mistake the upper bound as inclusive, but the rule specifies that a margin of exactly 5% results in a No.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 59%
- No 41%