Lula da Silva, 0-5%
Why it moved: +7 points at 09:49 UTC, after The Guardian Sport: Lula bans fixed-odds sports betting a week before Brazilian elections — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 60% |
| 26 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 64% |
| 25 Sept, 08:43 UTC | 57% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin between 0% and just under 5%. The outcome is No if his victory margin is 5% or more, or if he does not win. Readers often mistake the upper bound as inclusive, but the rule specifies that a margin of exactly 5% results in a No.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 60%
- No 40%