Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Implied probability 39%−1
24-hour volume$27k
Total volume$1.2M
Liquidity$1.2M
Resolves25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 02:36 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Sept, 06:05 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Sept, 23:46 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 42% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 45% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 45% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 43% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Sept, 02:06 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Sept, 21:10 UTC | 46% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 47% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific election. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution criteria, but only the official result of the 2026 vote matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 39%
- No 61%