Rank 1 to 2
Implied probability 3%−11
24-hour volume$77
Total volume$31k
Liquidity$31k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 01:31 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 6% |
| 20 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 23% |
| 20 Oct, 09:54 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 08:15 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 35% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 19% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 25% |
| 19 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 20% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 28% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 26% |
| 18 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 50% |
| 18 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 43% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 42% |
| 18 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 37% |
| 18 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 40% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 51% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 56% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 52% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 46% |
| 17 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 52% |
| 17 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 54% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 53% |
| 17 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 55% |
| 17 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 56% |
| 17 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 40% |
| 17 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Oct, 09:52 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 32% |
| 17 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 22% |
| 17 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 02:17 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 27% |
| 16 Oct, 23:02 UTC | 28% |
| 16 Oct, 22:55 UTC | 29% |
| 16 Oct, 21:42 UTC | 25% |
| 16 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 30% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 71% |
| 16 Oct, 04:42 UTC | 72% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 65% |
| 16 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 64% |
| 16 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 65% |
| 14 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Olivia Rodrigo and Chappell Roan's song "Expectations" ranks between No. 1 and No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated October 31, 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the chart date for the release date or assume any ranking below No. 2 counts as a win.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%