Above $240M
Implied probability 31%
24-hour volume$26
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves19 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 15:06 UTC | 31% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the final hammer price for Van Gogh's *Châtaigniers en fleurs* exceeds $240 million during the live auction on November 18, 2026. It resolves to No if the price stays at or below that amount. Readers often mistake the headline’s $450 million estimate for the actual threshold, but only the final sold price matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%