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Ilhan Omar

Implied probability 28%−2
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$38k
Liquidity$38k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: −5 points at 20:17 UTC, after Fox News Politics: 'Radical Left Lunatic' judge Trump wanted impeached takes up Ilhan Omar warrant fight — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Ilhan Omar
0%50%100%28%22 Oct, 01:37 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now28%
29 Oct, 00:41 UTC28%
28 Oct, 23:04 UTC27%
28 Oct, 21:30 UTC26%
28 Oct, 20:17 UTC24%
28 Oct, 18:22 UTC29%
28 Oct, 17:47 UTC28%
28 Oct, 17:16 UTC28%
28 Oct, 15:26 UTC30%
28 Oct, 14:49 UTC30%
28 Oct, 09:39 UTC29%
28 Oct, 08:22 UTC27%
28 Oct, 04:17 UTC31%
28 Oct, 03:43 UTC28%
27 Oct, 21:47 UTC30%
27 Oct, 20:32 UTC29%
27 Oct, 18:19 UTC30%
27 Oct, 12:42 UTC32%
27 Oct, 04:06 UTC30%
27 Oct, 03:52 UTC28%
27 Oct, 02:16 UTC30%
27 Oct, 01:46 UTC41%
27 Oct, 01:06 UTC21%
27 Oct, 00:24 UTC32%
26 Oct, 23:52 UTC35%
26 Oct, 21:45 UTC41%
26 Oct, 20:56 UTC42%
26 Oct, 18:04 UTC38%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC37%
26 Oct, 15:17 UTC34%
26 Oct, 14:55 UTC35%
26 Oct, 13:47 UTC35%
26 Oct, 08:44 UTC34%
26 Oct, 05:53 UTC36%
26 Oct, 05:04 UTC33%
26 Oct, 03:20 UTC33%
26 Oct, 02:41 UTC34%
26 Oct, 01:52 UTC25%
26 Oct, 01:19 UTC26%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC31%
25 Oct, 23:35 UTC32%
25 Oct, 22:45 UTC30%
25 Oct, 21:43 UTC33%
25 Oct, 20:56 UTC37%
25 Oct, 20:05 UTC31%
25 Oct, 19:11 UTC37%
25 Oct, 17:42 UTC33%
25 Oct, 17:03 UTC36%
25 Oct, 16:42 UTC32%
25 Oct, 15:53 UTC30%
25 Oct, 15:10 UTC35%
25 Oct, 13:56 UTC28%
25 Oct, 10:35 UTC25%
25 Oct, 05:24 UTC24%
25 Oct, 03:51 UTC37%
25 Oct, 02:21 UTC36%
25 Oct, 00:29 UTC37%
24 Oct, 23:48 UTC33%
24 Oct, 22:58 UTC35%
24 Oct, 21:58 UTC31%
24 Oct, 20:44 UTC34%
24 Oct, 20:05 UTC35%
24 Oct, 19:23 UTC33%
24 Oct, 18:36 UTC36%
24 Oct, 18:15 UTC35%
24 Oct, 17:01 UTC35%
24 Oct, 16:47 UTC36%
24 Oct, 16:08 UTC38%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC40%
24 Oct, 14:34 UTC38%
24 Oct, 13:45 UTC44%
24 Oct, 13:00 UTC37%
24 Oct, 09:36 UTC40%
24 Oct, 09:22 UTC42%
24 Oct, 08:57 UTC43%
24 Oct, 08:02 UTC36%
24 Oct, 07:17 UTC42%
24 Oct, 04:25 UTC41%
24 Oct, 03:42 UTC42%
24 Oct, 01:06 UTC43%
24 Oct, 00:27 UTC42%
23 Oct, 23:57 UTC30%
23 Oct, 23:17 UTC40%
23 Oct, 22:21 UTC43%
23 Oct, 21:18 UTC42%
23 Oct, 20:49 UTC41%
23 Oct, 20:05 UTC37%
23 Oct, 19:34 UTC43%
23 Oct, 19:12 UTC42%
23 Oct, 18:56 UTC43%
23 Oct, 18:07 UTC43%
23 Oct, 17:38 UTC41%
23 Oct, 17:24 UTC28%
23 Oct, 16:43 UTC35%
23 Oct, 14:01 UTC44%
23 Oct, 13:52 UTC45%
23 Oct, 09:14 UTC44%
23 Oct, 07:47 UTC47%
23 Oct, 07:26 UTC41%
23 Oct, 06:11 UTC44%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC39%
23 Oct, 04:24 UTC34%
23 Oct, 03:41 UTC30%
23 Oct, 01:18 UTC31%
23 Oct, 00:55 UTC39%
23 Oct, 00:28 UTC48%
22 Oct, 23:48 UTC46%
22 Oct, 22:18 UTC38%
22 Oct, 21:57 UTC31%
22 Oct, 21:02 UTC30%
22 Oct, 20:40 UTC31%
22 Oct, 20:05 UTC30%
22 Oct, 19:58 UTC34%
22 Oct, 17:38 UTC30%
22 Oct, 17:09 UTC34%
22 Oct, 16:26 UTC36%
22 Oct, 15:36 UTC34%
22 Oct, 14:31 UTC48%
22 Oct, 14:17 UTC33%
22 Oct, 13:56 UTC34%
22 Oct, 12:21 UTC31%
22 Oct, 11:53 UTC32%
22 Oct, 11:22 UTC36%
22 Oct, 10:31 UTC33%
22 Oct, 06:53 UTC26%
22 Oct, 01:37 UTC35%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if federal agents arrest Ilhan Omar before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if she avoids arrest by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a home raid for an arrest, but only a formal arrest counts toward resolution.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 28%
  • No 72%

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