Before 2028
Why it moved: −7 points at 23:37 UTC, after Axios: AOC test-runs a Senate bid in upstate New York — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 65% |
| 26 Sept, 22:05 UTC | 66% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez officially runs for the Senate in 2028 before April 1, 2028. The outcome is No if she does not run by that date or if her candidacy begins on or after April 1, 2028. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about testing a bid as sufficient evidence, but only an official run counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 58%
- No 42%