Above 116
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$20k
Liquidity$20k
Resolves7 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 13:40 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Carbon Arc Amazon Credit Card Spend for September 2026 exceeds 116. It resolves to No if that spend is 116 or lower. Readers often mistake the start date of Prime Day for the relevant deadline, but only the actual credit card spending data from September 2026 matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%