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MGM Resorts

Implied probability 10%−20
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: −21 points at 22:55 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: Barry Diller Drops $18 Billion MGM Resorts Takeover Plan — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · MGM Resorts
0%50%100%10%22 Sept, 21:55 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now10%
24 Sept, 00:23 UTC10%
23 Sept, 23:27 UTC11%
23 Sept, 22:55 UTC9%
22 Sept, 21:55 UTC30%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if any company announces an agreement to acquire MGM Resorts before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of the announcement for the deadline, but the key is that the agreement must be announced before Jan 1, 2027.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 10%
  • No 90%

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