During Trump's term
Why it moved: +6 points at 21:03 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Saudi-led coalition says power station attacked in Medina, blames Houthis — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 22:10 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 35% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 40% |
| 26 Sept, 02:02 UTC | 41% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel and Saudi Arabia establish normal diplomatic relations before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a prediction about arms sales or other geopolitical events rather than the specific normalization of ties between these two nations.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 36%
- No 64%