Derrick Van Orden
Implied probability 28%−3
24-hour volume$357
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 05:05 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the person elected to represent Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 election and sworn in for the term starting in 2027 is a Republican. The outcome depends on the party affiliation of the individual holding that specific seat, not the candidate who filed the lawsuit or won the primary.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 28%
- No 72%