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Before 2030

Implied probability 79%+54
24-hour volume$610
Total volume$60k
Liquidity$60k
Resolves1 Jan 2030

Why it moved: +54 points at 17:32 UTC, after Engadget: Apple hit with a $5.7 billion verdict for alleged patent infringement — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Before 2030
0%50%100%79%25 Sept, 16:04 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now79%
26 Sept, 17:32 UTC79%
25 Sept, 16:04 UTC25%

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Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if the District Court for the District of New Jersey finds Apple responsible for any antitrust claims brought by the Department of Justice. It resolves to No if the court does not make such a finding before 2030. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the ruling must occur immediately rather than anytime before the year 2030.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 79%
  • No 21%

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