Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Implied probability 11%−1
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$1.8M
Liquidity$75k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 11% |
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What counts
Iran must publicly pledge to stop all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for a Yes outcome. This pledge can be unilateral or part of any agreement, and it counts even if the deal is not finalized or only limits enrichment levels. Readers often mistake partial caps on enrichment for a full end to enrichment, which does not qualify.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 90%
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