Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Why it moved: +11 points at 02:24 UTC, after Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: CDC reports more than 5,000 measles cases, highest number in 35 years — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 06:25 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Nov, 05:50 UTC | 34% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 34% |
| 7 Nov, 03:39 UTC | 33% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 32% |
| 6 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 22% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if the CDC measles case counter records at least 7,500 confirmed human cases in the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2026. It resolves to "No" if the total falls below that threshold within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistakenly count state-level reports or global figures instead of relying solely on the official CDC counter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 30%
- No 70%
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