Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?
Implied probability 79%+1
24-hour volume$480
Total volume$47k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 79% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 18:12 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 16:52 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 16:14 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 83% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Oct, 08:11 UTC | 75% |
| 1 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 77% |
| 1 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 77% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 06:22 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 74% |
| 1 Oct, 04:30 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Oct, 04:11 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Sept, 23:53 UTC | 45% |
| 30 Sept, 23:06 UTC | 40% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 19% |
| 30 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome applies if Google does not release a new Gemini Pro model to the general public by October 31, 2026. The No outcome applies if such a release occurs on or before that deadline. Readers often mistake non-Pro variants like Flash models or closed beta access for qualifying releases.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 79%
- No 22%
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