Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 26% |
| 15 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 26% |
| 15 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 26% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 26% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 26% |
| 14 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 29% |
| 14 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 32% |
| 14 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 06:49 UTC | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces physically enter any of the specified districts of Aden by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. It resolves to No if they do not enter those specific areas within that timeframe, excluding Al Buraiqeh district. Readers often mistake naval presence, bombardment, or mere claims of entry for actual ground operations, which do not count toward a Yes outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 74%
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