Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilli
Implied probability 75%+4
24-hour volume$88k
Total volume$90k
Liquidity$317k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 20:14 UTC | 75% |
| 31 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 73% |
| 31 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 71% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The Canelo outcome triggers if he is officially declared the winner by the WBC or credible reporters after the fight concludes. The Mbilli outcome triggers if Christian Mbilli receives that official declaration. Readers often mistake a postponed event past November 14, 2026, for a draw resolution instead of a 50-50 split.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Canelo 75%
- Mbilli 26%
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