Spread: Bulgaria (-3.5)
The market favoured Estonia at 96% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$25k
Resolved29 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 17:49 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 5% |
What counts
Bulgaria wins if they beat Estonia by four goals or more in the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Otherwise, the market resolves to Estonia. Readers often mistake the linked bond sale story for the relevant event instead of the UEFA Nations League match.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Bulgaria 0%
- Estonia 100%
View this market on Polymarket →