Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 22:37 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 17:51 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Sept, 09:04 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 08:50 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 05:38 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 05:02 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 04:27 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Sept, 02:51 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 09:51 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 08:20 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Sept, 07:33 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 03:03 UTC | 6% |
| 28 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 21:15 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 11:40 UTC | 7% |
| 27 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 22:16 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 21:07 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 19:46 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 05:56 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 05:10 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 04:42 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 11:02 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 10:19 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 09:36 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 08:01 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 07:54 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 07:25 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine publicly agrees to cap its total armed forces personnel by December 31, 2026. This agreement can be a unilateral pledge or part of any deal with Russia and does not need to be finalized or take effect immediately. Readers often mistake limits on specific military branches or weapons for the required total personnel cap.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 92%
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