Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$38k
Liquidity$45k
Resolves31 Mar 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 13:39 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 11:00 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 10:15 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 3% |
| 5 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Oct, 07:21 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 12:32 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 0% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the "Yes" outcome, Santiago Abascal must officially assume the office of Prime Minister of Spain by receiving a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and being formally sworn in before March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. For the "No" outcome, either another individual assumes the role under these conditions, or no one does by the deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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