Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 12 Nov, 15:06 UTC | 41% |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 40% |
| 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Nov, 13:50 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Nov, 13:16 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Nov, 12:41 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 12:27 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 39% |
| 12 Nov, 11:25 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 38% |
| 12 Nov, 09:59 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 09:03 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 08:50 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 08:23 UTC | 40% |
| 12 Nov, 07:09 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Nov, 05:35 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Nov, 05:15 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 04:35 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Nov, 04:28 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Nov, 11:09 UTC | 35% |
| 11 Nov, 10:53 UTC | 34% |
| 11 Nov, 10:25 UTC | 34% |
| 11 Nov, 09:58 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Nov, 23:35 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 22:11 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Nov, 21:02 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Nov, 19:27 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Nov, 18:52 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 17:22 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 16:54 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 16:25 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Nov, 15:22 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 35% |
| 10 Nov, 13:57 UTC | 35% |
| 10 Nov, 13:28 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Nov, 12:26 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Nov, 11:55 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Nov, 10:59 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Nov, 09:53 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Nov, 09:12 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Nov, 07:57 UTC | 31% |
| 10 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Nov, 05:49 UTC | 32% |
| 10 Nov, 05:29 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Nov, 04:28 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 33% |
| 10 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Nov, 05:57 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Nov, 05:23 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Nov, 03:59 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Nov, 01:48 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Nov, 00:30 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 17:12 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 16:43 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 16:28 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 11:12 UTC | 26% |
| 6 Nov, 10:56 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Nov, 09:09 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 08:27 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 07:17 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 29% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Progressive Party wins more head-of-local-government races than any other party in Taiwan's major cities and counties. It resolves to No if another party wins the most seats or if a tie occurs where the DPP is not first alphabetically. Readers often mistake the deadline, but the market stays open until results are official, even if that extends past June 30, 2027.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 62%
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