Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$33k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 100% |
| 2 Nov, 21:33 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a non-Democrat wins or if no candidate is declared the winner. Readers often mistake the linked story about Jack Reed for the resolution, but this market depends on the 2026 election results called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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