Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 50% |
| 23 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 04:17 UTC | 47% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 47% |
| 22 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 46% |
| 22 Oct, 14:39 UTC | 48% |
| 22 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 48% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 49% |
| 22 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 46% |
| 21 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 49% |
| 21 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 48% |
| 21 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 48% |
| 21 Oct, 17:27 UTC | 48% |
| 21 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 48% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 45% |
| 21 Oct, 07:29 UTC | 49% |
| 21 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 49% |
| 21 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 50% |
| 21 Oct, 04:26 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 52% |
| 20 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 54% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 53% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 51% |
| 20 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 52% |
| 20 Oct, 09:04 UTC | 51% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 52% |
| 19 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 49% |
| 18 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 51% |
| 17 Oct, 12:41 UTC | 49% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
Anthropic wins if its AI model holds the top spot on Chatbot Arena’s leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The ranking uses unrounded arena scores to break ties, with alphabetical company name order as the final tiebreaker. Readers often mistake the resolution time or ignore that only models listed under the “Leaderboard” tab count toward the result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 51%
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