Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 08:53 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 05:25 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 23:20 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 4% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on who takes second place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. If players tie for second, France Football or UEFA breaks the tie alphabetically by name. Readers often mistake the October 26 ceremony date as the final deadline, but the official ranking must be published by December 31, 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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