Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 3% |
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What counts
For the Yes outcome, one person must exercise primary governing control over Iran's armed forces and state institutions on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. For the No outcome, no single individual holds this effective authority at that specific time. Readers often mistake formal titles or foreign recognition for actual power, but only demonstrable domestic control counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 98%
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