Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Implied probability 12%−1
24-hour volume$23k
Total volume$3.3M
Liquidity$215k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 2 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 13:36 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any inhabited part of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline or assume uninhabited islands count toward the resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 89%
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