Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Microsoft owns the model with the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. The ranking uses the Overall leaderboard with style control off and excludes any models marked as AutoEval. Readers often mistake the source of truth for general industry reports or ignore the specific requirement to check the leaderboard at the exact deadline time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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