Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?
Why it moved: +4 points at 19:06 UTC, after Engadget - Technology News & Expert Reviews: OpenAI will add a digital watermark to text and code generated in the EU — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 89% |
| 5 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 85% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the arena.ai Text-to-Image Leaderboard for models on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI owns the top-ranked model and No if another company does. Readers often mistake the deadline or ignore the rule that AutoEval models are excluded from the ranking.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 89%
- No 12%
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