Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Why it moved: +5 points at 20:26 UTC, after France 24 - Noticias y actualidad internacional en vivo: Informe desde Río de Janeiro: qué esperan los ciudadanos de la reñida elección en Brasil — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 20:33 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, including any potential second round. The No outcome applies if he does not win. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Gaza for the resolution criteria, but the market depends solely on the official election results reported by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 33%
- No 68%
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