Will the Democratic Party win the IN-02 House seat?
Implied probability 4%+3
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 02:49 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:42 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves Yes if a Democrat wins the IN-02 House seat in the 2026 midterm election, and No otherwise. The winner is determined by their party affiliation at the time the election is conclusively called based on credible reporting or official Federal Election Commission results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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